Short answer: in the twelve months to September 30, 2026, the typical vintage or neo-vintage Rolex reference sold for about 9 percent more at online auction than in the twelve months before. Twenty-one of the 25 references we could measure rose. In dealer sales, an original dial was worth about a third more than a Rolex service dial on the same reference, and close to double on the early sports watches. Dealers' prices sat about a quarter above online hammer prices, most of which is the buyer's premium and the dealer's margin.
By Colston Bowler, founder of Grey Market. Figures come from Grey Market's price database; the method is at the end.
Vintage Rolex: Up About 9 Percent
We compared the median hammer price for each reference at online and regional auctions in two windows: October 2025 to September 2026, and the twelve months before. We kept only references with at least eight auction results in each window, which left 25 vintage and neo-vintage Rolex references. Twenty-one of them sold for more, and the median change across all 25 was a rise of about 9 percent. Weighted by how often each reference sold, the rise was closer to 8 percent; the middle half of references rose between about 5 and 13 percent.
That is a steady market, not a boom. The gains are spread across the catalogue rather than concentrated in a few hot references.
| Reference | Change, largest first | Median hammer, last 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| Oyster Perpetual 6694 | Up about 20% | About $2,750 |
| GMT-Master II 16710 | Up about 19% | About $12,500 |
| GMT-Master 1675 | Up about 10% | About $10,750 |
| Submariner 1680 | Up about 10% | About $12,000 |
| Submariner 16610 | Up about 9% | About $8,750 |
| Explorer II 16570 | Up about 9% | About $7,500 |
| Datejust 1601 | Up about 9% | About $4,250 |
| Datejust 16013 | Down about 4% | About $4,500 |
| Day-Date 1803 | Down about 16% | About $8,250 |
The sports references led. The GMT-Master II 16710, the last aluminium-bezel GMT, was the strongest of the busy references. The simple time-only Oyster Perpetual 6694 rose as much, from a much lower base.
The soft spots were dressier. The Day-Date 1803 fell, and the two-tone Datejust 16013 slipped a little. Two references are not a trend, but in our data the dressier, gold-bearing references were where the softness was.
An Original Dial Is Still Worth About a Third More
The single biggest price driver in vintage Rolex is still the dial. Across 26 references where we could separate original dials from Rolex service dials (sales from 2022 on, most of them dealer sales), the median premium for an original dial was about a third. For half of those references it fell between about a quarter and a half.
On the early sports watches the gap is far wider. An original-dial GMT-Master 1675 sold for roughly double a service-dial example. The Submariner 5512 was close behind, and the 1680 and 5513 carried premiums of about three quarters. On a Datejust 1601 the premium was about a quarter.
A service dial is a genuine Rolex part, and there is nothing wrong with owning one. But if you are buying, the dial is the first thing to price, and if you are selling, it is the first thing a buyer will ask about. Our Rolex dial guide shows how to tell them apart.
Dealer Prices Sit About a Quarter Above Online Hammer
For 21 references with enough sales in both channels over the last twelve months, the median price a dealer sold at was about 27 percent above the median online auction hammer for the same reference.
Read that as a spread, not a saving. A hammer price leaves out the buyer's premium, which runs from 7 percent on Grey Market to well over 20 percent at many auction platforms, and dealer stock is often serviced, sorted and sold with a warranty. Much of the online auction market is dealers buying stock, so the gap is largely the dealer's margin. For a seller, it is a fair measure of what a dealer's buying price leaves on the table. Our buyer's premium guide works through the same arithmetic on a single watch.
What We Saw at Grey Market
Submissions to our auctions rose about two and a half times from the second quarter, our first, to the third. We approved about one in ten of them; why we turn down most watches explains the rest. On October 19 the Grey Market Exchange opened to every member, alongside the auctions, so collectors can now also sell at their own price.
What It Means
- If you are buying: prices are rising slowly, not running away. Pay for the dial first and the case second; papers come after both.
- If you are selling: a steel sports reference with its original dial is where the gains in our data were strongest. Price it from completed sales of the same reference, not from dealer asking prices. Our guide to selling a Rolex compares the routes.
- If you are watching the dressier references: the Day-Date 1803 and two-tone Datejust 16013 were the soft spots this year.
Method
Figures come from Grey Market's price database of public online and regional auction results and dealer sales, matched to references. The major Geneva and New York evening sales are not included. Changes compare median hammer prices for October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026 with the twelve months before, for references with at least eight auction results in each window. Medians in the table are rounded. Dial premiums compare original matte or gilt dials with Rolex service dials on the same reference, for references with at least four sales of each, using auction and dealer sales from 2022 on; most of those sales are dealer sales. Prices are in US dollars and not adjusted for inflation. Dealer figures are prices at which dealers sold, as listed. Hammer prices exclude the buyer's premium. Medians move with the mix of watches that come up for sale, so small differences on a single reference should be read with care. Grey Market's own submission figures are for auction submissions.
Journalists and researchers are welcome to cite these figures with a link to this page. For questions or a reference we did not cover, contact us.
Reference guides
Deep dives on the references discussed in this story:
- Rolex GMT-Master 16710 (c. 1989–2007)
- Rolex GMT-Master 1675 (c. 1959–1980)
- Rolex Submariner 1680 (c. 1967–1979)
- Rolex Submariner 5513 (1962–1989)
- Rolex Submariner 16610 (1989–2010)
- Rolex Explorer II 16570 (c. 1989–2011)
- Rolex Datejust 1601 (c. 1960–1977)
- Rolex Day-Date 1803 (c. 1959/60–1977/78)