The market has finished correcting. The next cycle is starting in slow motion. Here is where every major segment sits today.
Executive Summary
The pre-owned luxury watch market entered 2026 in a meaningfully different place than it ended 2021. The hype-driven appreciation that sent reference 116610 Submariners to $20,000 and Patek 5711 Nautiluses to $200,000 has fully unwound. Speculative inflows have largely exited the market. Pricing has stabilized at levels that reflect underlying collector demand rather than financial-asset speculation.
For serious collectors, this is the healthier market environment. Liquidity is solid, authentication infrastructure has matured, and the capital that remains in the market is mostly real demand from people who actually want to wear watches. The next phase will be slower and more reference-specific than the last cycle. This report walks through where each major segment sits as of May 2026.
Rolex Sport References: Stable, Selectively Strong
Submariner (Modern)
The 124060 (no-date) and 126610LN trade in the $13,000 to $16,000 range on the secondary market — approximately 10 to 20 percent above retail and roughly flat year-over-year after the steep 2023 correction. Demand is durable but not aggressive. Wait lists at authorized dealers remain long but have shortened modestly.
GMT-Master II
The 126710BLRO ("Pepsi") and 126710BLNR ("Batman") trade in the $17,000 to $22,000 range, with the green-bezel "Sprite" 126720VTNR commanding a small premium. The Pepsi reference has held up best in the correction; the green-dial GMT 126713 in two-tone has been one of the weaker segments.
Daytona
The steel 126500LN white-dial Daytona trades around $32,000 to $38,000 — well off its 2022 peak above $55,000 but stable for most of 2025 and into 2026. The black-dial variant trades modestly below the white. Precious-metal Daytonas have held up better than steel, with platinum and yellow-gold examples trading near retail or above.
Sea-Dweller and Explorer
The Sea-Dweller 126600 and Explorer II 226570 (white "Polar" dial) sit close to retail, with the Polar Explorer II showing modest upward movement in early 2026 — likely driven by the steel-sport tier broadly recovering and the 226570 being relatively newer in market awareness compared to Submariner and GMT references.
Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet
Patek Nautilus 5711
The discontinued steel 5711/1A trades around $130,000 to $160,000 in mid-2026 — dramatically below the 2022 peak above $300,000 but stable for the past six quarters. The market has settled into a price level that reflects scarcity-driven demand rather than speculative excess. Buyers in this range are largely real collectors rather than flippers.
Patek Aquanaut
The 5167A trades around $55,000 to $70,000 depending on dial color, with green-dial variants at the upper end. The 5168G and complications-equipped Aquanauts have held up better than the standard 5167A.
AP Royal Oak (Steel)
The 15500ST trades around $45,000 to $58,000, with blue and green dials commanding the upper end of the range. The 15400ST (the prior-generation 41mm Royal Oak) has interestingly outperformed the 15500ST on a percentage basis in 2025–2026, as collectors increasingly view the prior-generation case as the more refined design.
AP Royal Oak Offshore and Complications
The high-complication and Offshore variants have been more volatile than the standard Royal Oak. The 26331ST chronograph has held up well; the various Offshore variants have varied dramatically by reference.
Vintage: The Quiet Strength
The vintage market has been the most stable segment through the 2022–2024 correction, and it continues to outperform modern sport references in 2026. Several factors converge here: vintage supply is fixed (no new production), vintage buyers are typically more committed collectors rather than speculators, and the recent correction has reminded the market that "real watches" with provenance hold value in a way speculative modern references do not.
Vintage Rolex Submariner (Pre-1990)
References 5513, 1680, 16800 in unpolished condition with original tritium dials trade in the $25,000 to $80,000 range depending on year, dial variant, and originality. The market has appreciated 5 to 12 percent over the past 12 months for high-quality examples.
Vintage Daytona (Pre-2000)
Manual-wind Daytonas (4-digit references) and Zenith Daytonas (5-digit references with the El Primero movement) have been steady-to-up. Paul Newman Daytonas remain the apex of the segment, with documented examples trading $300,000 to over $1 million depending on dial variant and provenance.
Vintage Patek Calatrava and Perpetual Calendars
The vintage Patek market has been the strongest single segment of 2025–2026. Perpetual calendars from the 1950s through 1970s have appreciated 8 to 15 percent year-over-year for documented examples. The 2526 (Patek's first automatic Calatrava) and 5004 (split-seconds chronograph perpetual calendar) have set auction records this past year.
Independents: Real Brand Discrimination Has Started
The independent watchmaking segment, which appreciated indiscriminately during 2020–2022, is now seeing meaningful brand discrimination. Some independents have stabilized and continue to appreciate; others have given back the majority of their gains.
F.P. Journe
Has held up well. The Chronomètre Souverain and Chronomètre à Résonance continue to trade above retail with strong collector demand. Journe's production discipline and Mr. Journe's continued personal involvement have insulated the brand from the broader independent correction.
De Bethune
Has shown more weakness. Recent references trade closer to retail than they did in 2022, though the brand's distinctive design language continues to attract a serious collector base.
MB&F
Mixed. Specific limited editions have held value; broader production has softened modestly.
Voutilainen, Akrivia, Rexhep Rexhepi
The newer generation of independents continues to appreciate at retail-and-above for current production. Secondary market demand exceeds supply. This segment is the closest current parallel to the 2014–2018 phase of the major-brand market — early-stage appreciation driven by genuine collector demand rather than speculation.
A. Lange & Söhne
Has been one of the most stable through the correction. Lange's complications and Datograph references have appreciated modestly over the past year, with the 1815 Chronograph being a particularly strong performer.
What's Still Soft
Several segments have not yet recovered from the 2022–2024 correction and may not for some time:
- Mid-tier modern sport references. Watches in the $5,000 to $10,000 segment that appreciated rapidly during 2020–2022 (certain Tudor references, second-tier Rolex variants, mainstream Omega Speedmasters) are largely flat year-over-year and may be range-bound for several years as the market digests excess inventory.
- Hyped recent releases without staying power. Limited-edition collaborations and "drops" that traded at multiples of retail in 2021–2022 are now trading at modest premiums or even slight discounts to original retail.
- Speculative independent brands. Some smaller independents that appreciated rapidly during 2020–2022 have given back 30 to 60 percent of their peak-cycle gains.
Where Capital Is Moving
The most informed capital in the market — long-term collectors, dealers, and institutional buyers — is concentrating in three segments in 2026:
- Vintage Patek and high-grade vintage Rolex. Real production scarcity, strong provenance documentation infrastructure, and durable cross-cycle demand.
- Top-tier independent watchmaking with current production. Voutilainen, Akrivia, Rexhep Rexhepi, and similar makers. Limited supply, growing collector recognition, and the early-cycle dynamics that drove F.P. Journe appreciation in the 2010s.
- Sleeper modern references. Watches that meet the structural criteria for appreciation — limited production, distinctive design, durable brand — but are not currently in mainstream collector conversation. See our 5 sleeper watches set to appreciate for current examples.
What This Means for Collectors
For buyers, 2026 is the most rational watch market of the past five years. Authentication infrastructure has matured, prices reflect real demand rather than speculation, and the references that were broken by the 2022 correction have largely stabilized. This is not a market where you will make 100 percent returns in 18 months — but it is also not a market where you risk losing 50 percent in 18 months.
For sellers, the rational pricing environment is also a more transparent one. Sellers who price at recent comparable sold prices and provide complete documentation generally find buyers in 2 to 6 weeks for blue-chip references. Sellers who anchor on 2022 peak prices or refuse to disclose authentication-relevant details are not finding buyers. Read our 5 signs it's time to sell your watch for the framework.
For long-term collectors, the current environment is fundamentally healthier than the 2020–2022 frenzy. The collectors who entered the market during the speculative phase and have stayed through the correction are the durable buyer base that will drive the next cycle. Patient capital with selection discipline tends to do well in markets that look like this one.
Looking Forward
The next 12 to 24 months will likely be characterized by slow appreciation in the strongest segments (vintage Patek, top-tier independents, blue-chip vintage Rolex) and continued stabilization in the broader modern sport reference market. Major catalysts to watch: any meaningful production volume changes from Rolex or Patek; the continued maturation of independent watchmakers as their second-generation references reach the market; and the broader macro environment, which will affect alternative-asset demand globally.
This report will be updated in early 2027. For the underlying framework that contextualizes these market observations, see our collector's investing guide and the broader comparison in Watches vs. Stocks vs. Crypto.